Methodology
How we price private companies.
Private-market data is noisy. This page lists every vendor, refresh cadence, reconciliation rule, and confidence band used on Mithril. No proprietary model is applied; values pass through documented pipelines with the rules below.
TL;DR
- • Prices use live on-chain pools where available, otherwise a reference derived from public filings.
- • Every company card shows the last-updated timestamp for the displayed price.
- • Displayed numbers are midpoints with a confidence band, not executable quotes.
- • Cross-venue reconciliation runs continuously; divergences > 3% flag for manual review.
- • The source list below is complete for every value rendered on the platform.
How we value each company
Each company card displays a single valuation number. That number is the last-round clearing price — the per-share price at which the most recently announced primary or material secondary round closed — restated on a post-money, fully diluted basis. Every company has a round date displayed next to its valuation, so the age of the signal is always visible.
1
Identify the last clearing event
Primary priced rounds are preferred. If none has happened in the last 18 months, we use the most recent material secondary (tender offer or large cross) with disclosed per-share price. Option exercises, convertible rolls, and safe rounds do not clear.
2
Restate to post-money, fully diluted
Valuation = per-share clearing price × fully-diluted share count (common + all outstanding preferred + issued RSU/PSU/option pool + warrants). Where the company does not publish the cap table, we use the round-announcement post-money figure and footnote the source.
3
Date the source
Every valuation carries an "as-of" date (month and year). When a round closes but the post-money is not disclosed for 30+ days, the card displays the previous figure and flags the pending update.
4
Reconcile against live venues
If a Jarsy pool (Base) or PreStocks pool (Solana) trades the same ticker, the on-chain last-trade price is shown alongside the primary-round figure. Divergence > 15% widens the confidence band and flags for manual review.
5
Disclose the fallback
When no priced round exists in the last 18 months and no on-chain pool is available, the card displays an "implied" price derived from forward-comparable public multiples, labelled explicitly as implied. Never shown as a transactable quote.
Aggregate coverage
Total covered
$3.7T
Sum of
valuationNum across all 71 companies as of April 2026.Company count
71
Private companies with a disclosed last-round figure. Public-listed and merged tickers are marked but excluded from the aggregate.
The headline figure (currently $3.7T) is a straight sum of each company's most recent post-money valuation, dated as of each company's last priced round. It is not a market cap in the public-equity sense — private companies do not trade continuously, and this sum would fluctuate only when rounds re-price. The figure updates on round announcement, typically within one business day of Form D filing or official press release.
Update cadence
- Price enrichment runs via Vercel Cron: CoinGecko every 5 minutes, GeckoTerminal pools every 1 minute, Jarsy/PreStocks on-chain reads under 30 seconds.
- News is pulled hourly from NewsData.io, Hacker News, and the Google News feed; headlines are scored for sentiment inline.
- Fundamentals (funding rounds, valuation figures, cap-table updates) are updated on round announcement — typically within one business day of the Form D filing or official press release.
- SEC filings (Form D, S-1, 8-K) refresh daily at 04:00 UTC; USPTO patent counts refresh weekly.
Data sources
Every external vendor or API that feeds any value displayed on Mithril. "Authoritative" sources are used for pricing or regulatory decisions; non-authoritative sources are signals shown alongside.
Source
Category
Refresh
Used for
Role
SEC EDGAR
Primary filings
Daily at 04:00 UTC
Form D (Reg D) raise disclosures, S-1/F-1 IPO filings, 8-K corporate events
auth
USPTO PatentsView
Innovation signal
Weekly
Patent count, recent grants, IP signal for technical depth
auth
GitHub API
Engineering activity
Hourly
Public repo stars, forks, commit velocity — signal of engineering org health
signal
Jarsy (Base L2)
On-chain price
< 30 seconds
Tokenized equity prices from Jarsy wrapped-share contracts on Base
auth
PreStocks (Solana)
On-chain price
< 30 seconds
Tokenized equity prices from PreStocks liquidity pools on Solana
auth
GeckoTerminal
On-chain OHLCV
1 minute
Historical candlestick data for Jarsy / PreStocks token pools
auth
CoinGecko
Token reference
5 minutes
Secondary price reconciliation for tokenized equity
auth
Hyperliquid
Perpetuals
< 5 seconds
Funding rate, mark price, open interest for pre-IPO perps
auth
Polymarket
Prediction markets
30 seconds
Event probability for IPO timing / valuation prediction markets
auth
Kalshi
Prediction markets
30 seconds
CFTC-regulated event contracts cross-reference
auth
Metaculus
Forecasting
1 hour
Community forecaster probability distributions
signal
NewsData.io + HN
News sentiment
30 minutes
Headline feed and sentiment scoring per company
signal
App Store / Play Store
Consumer signal
Daily
Download rank, rating, review velocity for consumer companies
signal
Clearbit Logo API
Branding
On-demand
Company logo retrieval (cached)
signal
Pricing rules
Tokenized price (live)
If an on-chain pool exists (Jarsy on Base or PreStocks on Solana), the displayed price is the last-trade price from that pool, cached for ≤ 30 seconds. A small purple dot indicates a live feed.
OTC reference price
For companies without an on-chain pool, the reference price is derived from the most recent publicly reported primary raise (lead-investor price), adjusted for dilution using Form D filings. This is a reference, not an executable price — actual OTC executions settle at a negotiated price between buyer and seller.
Confidence band
Pre-IPO valuations carry real uncertainty. Company cards show a ± band derived from the spread of the last three primary-market clearing prices (or, when absent, a fixed ±15% band). Any single number should be read as a midpoint, not a guarantee.
Prediction probabilities
Event probabilities use the mid-market quote from the Mithril CLOB. External probabilities (Polymarket, Kalshi, Metaculus) are shown as a cross-reference but are not used in Mithril market resolution.
Perpetual mark price
Perps mark price uses a 5-second TWAP of the underlying tokenized pool, or — absent a pool — an index composite of at least two reference venues (Hyperliquid + on-chain). Funding rate is recomputed every 8 hours.
Refresh cadence
Real-time
< 30 sec
Tokenized pool price, prediction CLOB
Near real-time
< 5 min
Market stats, external prediction markets
Periodic
Hourly
GitHub activity, news feed
Daily batch
24 hours
SEC filings, app-store signals
Weekly batch
7 days
Patent filings, deep enrichment
Reconciliation & divergence handling
- Dual-source pricing. When both Jarsy (Base) and PreStocks (Solana) list the same ticker, we display the venue with greater 24h depth and note the alternate.
- Divergence alerts. Any cross-venue spread > 3% triggers an internal alert; the page continues to display the primary price but the confidence band widens.
- Stale data. A price is flagged as stale if the on-chain pool has not had a trade in 48 hours. Stale tokenized prices fall back to the OTC reference price with a visible tag.
- Primary-market adjustment. When Form D is filed (lagged disclosure), OTC reference prices are updated to reflect the new lead-round price within one business day.
Known limitations
- Pre-IPO valuations carry genuine uncertainty. Primary rounds lag real value; OTC depth is thin; news outruns clearing prices.
- Mithril does not license PitchBook, Caplight, Forge, or Nasdaq Private Market feeds. Any reference to those venues on this site is editorial, not a data partnership.
- No figure on this page is IFRS or GAAP audited. For a professional valuation, consult your own counsel and an independent appraiser.
- Prediction-market probabilities move with flow, and thin books can shift on a single trade. Treat probabilities as market-implied, not forecasts.